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CCOS / ACIS Weekly
Cross-sector synthesis of macro cycles, credit and liquidity, eight industry themes, capital rotation and portfolio conclusions. Historical macro research remains preserved here.
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Yields Fall Again, but Treasury Drain and Wider Credit Push Liquidity to 37
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 011
2026.10.26
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Yields Fall Again, but Treasury Drain and Wider Credit Push Liquidity to 37
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 011
Rates Fell, but Liquidity Did Not Ease
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 010
Reserves Rebounded, but the Real Cost of Capital Remains High
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 009
U.S. Current-Conditions Sentiment Hits a Record Low as High Inflation and Rates Deepen the Consumer Divide
Critical Event Update | Sentiment 46.3 × Record-Low Current Conditions 44.7 × Long-Run Inflation Expectations 3.5%
A December ECB Hike Returns to the Base Case as French 10-Year Yields Approach 5%
Critical Event Update | 3.8% Euro-Area Inflation × December Hike Risk × 25-Year French Funding High
RBI Delivers Its First Rate Hike in Nearly Four Years as the Global Energy Shock Reaches Emerging-Market Policy
Critical Event Update | RBI +25bp × Calibrated Tightening × Rupee and Energy Transmission
Drone Strike Sinks a Merchant Ship in Bulgaria's Economic Zone, Extending Black Sea Risk Into a New Geography
Critical Event Update | Black Sea Civilian Shipping × Bulgaria's Economic Zone × War-Risk Insurance
France–Germany Spread Breaks 150bp as the Euro Hits a 17-Month Low, Moving the Duration Shock Into Sovereign Risk
Critical Event Update | French Fiscal Risk × Euro-Area Spreads × Currency Transmission
Growth Cracks as Liquidity Turns More Selective
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 008
U.S. Payrolls Add Just 29,000 as Long Bonds Keep Falling: October Hike Risk Drops but Term-Premium Pressure Remains
Critical Event Update | Payrolls × Fed Path × Long-End Term Premium
Euro-Zone Inflation Jumps to 3.8% as Energy Pressure Meets a High-Yield Constraint
Critical Event Update | Euro-Zone Inflation × ECB × Energy Counterevidence
PCE Relief Meets a New Constraint as Fed Officials Flag 50bp More and AI Adds Inflation Pressure
Critical Event Update | Fed Path × Global Duration Shock × AI Inflation
U.S. PCE Undershoots Expectations, Lowering October Hike Odds Without Ending the High-Rate Regime
Critical Event Update | Inflation Path × Fed Repricing
China Targets Real Borrowing Costs With a PSL Rate Cut and First-Home Mortgage Subsidies
Critical Event Update | Structural Monetary Policy × Mortgage Subsidies × Infrastructure Finance
The Treasury Shock Is Reaching Credit Spreads as High Capital Costs Enter Corporate Finance
Critical Event Update | Global Duration Shock × Corporate Credit Transmission
Liquidity Has Not Disappeared, but the Hurdle Rate Is Rising Again
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 007
Global Bond Sell-off Deepens as U.S. Yields Reach 5.145% and Central Banks Tighten
Critical Event Update | Global Duration Shock × Monetary Repricing
Treasury Yields Break 5% as SoftBank Prices AI-Funding Bonds at Up to 9.75%
Critical Event Update | Treasury Rates × AI Public Credit
Vanke Loan Forbearance Lowers Immediate Default Risk but Raises Bank-Asset Transparency Concerns
Critical Event Update | China Property Credit × Regulatory Forbearance
Oil Eases, but Money Remains Expensive: Macro Pressure Stabilizes Without Reversing
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 006
Houthis Claim Riyadh Operation as Capital Air-Defence Risk Rises, While Physical Damage Remains Unconfirmed
Critical Event Update | Saudi Security × Energy and Shipping Risk
Riyadh Infrastructure Risk Rises as Gemini’s Boundary Breach Exposes an Agent-Governance Gap
Dual Critical Event Update | Geopolitical Security × Agentic AI Governance
Russia Sanctions Escalate as AI Infrastructure Credit Stress Becomes Visible
Dual Critical Event Update | Macro Cycle × AI Infrastructure
Main and Bypass Routes Are Under Pressure: Energy Risk Enters a Multi-Route Fragility Phase
Macro Special Update | Energy × Geopolitics | 18 September 2026
We Got the Hike Right, but Underestimated the Fed’s Further-Tightening Bias
Macro & Monetary Policy | Prediction Check | FOMC 16 September 2026
The Hike Is Nearly Consensus. The Real Variable Is How Warsh Defines What Comes Next
Monetary Policy × Market Pricing | Event Forecast | Pre-decision Record
Growth Holds, but Higher Discount Rates Take Their Toll
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 005
The Inflation Direction Was Right, but Core Prices Were Stickier Than Expected
U.S. August PPI / CPI Prediction Check
After Strong Jobs, Core Inflation Will Decide the September Rate Case
U.S. August PPI / CPI Preview · Macro Special Update
AI Capital Is Being Priced by Credit Quality, Without a Systemic Credit Crisis
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 004
AI Earnings Arrived. Markets Won't Pay for Every Growth Story.
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 003
AI demand remains intact, but the cost of capital is becoming the second bottleneck
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 002
AI expansion remains healthy, but credit risk is rising
CCOS / ACIS Weekly Intelligence Report | Issue 001