RESEARCH MEMO · Digital Finance × RWA
Figure Is Evolving from Onchain Lending into an AI-Enabled RWA Capital-Markets Platform
Figure is changing in more than volume. Figure Connect expands distribution, Kiavi adds assets and origination, and Sierra agents improve loan conversion—pushing the company from an onchain lending tool toward an operating platform for origination, trading, settlement and distribution.
Q2 Consumer Loan Marketplace volume
Figure Connect share of marketplace volume
Early lift in funded-loan conversion with agent plus loan officer
Research status: Thesis Strengthened | Platform evidence rises
01 · RESEARCH BRIEF
The one-minute brief
Second-quarter Consumer Loan Marketplace volume rose 132% year over year, Figure Connect reached 65% of volume, net revenue rose 113%, and active origination partners increased to 489. Figure then closed Kiavi and reported an early Sierra-agent pilot in which agent-plus-loan-officer workflows lifted funded-loan conversion 143% versus loan officers alone. The evidence strengthens the platform and AI-commercialization thesis, while integration, replication and credit quality still require a full-quarter test.
Audio transcript
Figure is evolving from an onchain lending tool into an AI-enabled RWA capital-markets platform. Second-quarter marketplace volume rose one hundred thirty-two percent, Figure Connect reached sixty-five percent of volume, and net revenue rose one hundred thirteen percent. Kiavi expands the asset and origination network. A Sierra agent pilot then lifted funded-loan conversion one hundred forty-three percent when agents worked with loan officers. The important change is that assets, partners, distribution and an AI revenue workflow are joining one platform. This strengthens the thesis, but does not complete it. Kiavi synergy, agent replication and credit quality remain the next tests.
Known facts and open questions
- Classification
- Research Memo / Thesis Strengthened
- Primary category
- Crypto & Digital Finance
- Subtheme
- RWA / Onchain Capital Markets / Enterprise AI
Asset origination
Figure and partners create home-equity, residential-transition and other loan assets.
Marketplace and distribution
Figure Connect links originators, loan buyers and securitization channels.
AI and onchain infrastructure
Agents improve application conversion while digital rails support registration, trading and settlement.
02 · THESIS → EVIDENCE → UPDATE
What changed in the thesis?
Figure is moving from an onchain lending tool toward an AI-enabled RWA capital-markets platform
- Prior thesis
- Our prior view treated Figure as a fast-growing blockchain-native lending and RWA marketplace, with advantages in origination, securitization and trading efficiency—and risks in housing credit, asset quality, regulation and replication.
- New evidence
- Q2 Consumer Loan Marketplace volume reached $4.3 billion, up 132%; Figure Connect rose 262% and represented 65% of volume, while active origination partners reached 489. The Kiavi acquisition has closed, and the Sierra agent pilot puts AI directly into the funded-loan conversion workflow.
- Updated view
- The platform thesis strengthens. Figure is connecting origination, underwriting, trading, securitization, settlement and distribution, while using AI to improve the revenue funnel. A capital-markets operating system remains a direction under validation, not a completed outcome.
03 · EVIDENCE & ANALYSIS
Evidence and analysis
01｜Why is this more than a market narrative?
Q2 Consumer Loan Marketplace volume reached $4.3 billion, up 132% year over year. Net revenue was $226 million, up 113%, and net income margin reached 38.8%. Figure Connect volume was $2.77 billion, up 262%, and represented 65% of marketplace volume. Volume, revenue, profit and third-party mix improved together rather than through token prices alone.
02｜Why does Figure Connect matter?
Figure Connect links loan originators with capital buyers. Figure added 102 origination partners in Q2, reaching 489. A rising marketplace share makes Figure more of a distribution network and less dependent on holding loans on its own balance sheet.
03｜What does Kiavi add?
Figure completed its acquisition of Kiavi technology, operations and selected assets on September 1 and plans to distribute residential-transition and DSCR lending capabilities across more than 480 partners. This expands asset types and origination, but cross-selling, retention, costs and credit performance must prove the synergy.
04｜Are the AI agents already commercial?
Early company data show that Sierra agents working with loan officers lifted funded-loan conversion 143% versus loan officers alone. The agent uses voice and SMS to re-engage stalled borrowers, resolves routine frictions and hands the applicant back to a human. This is a revenue workflow, not merely a support demo. The analysis covered a July 2026 pilot, however, with sample size, duration and credit outcomes not fully disclosed.
05｜Why is this RWA rather than ordinary fintech?
RWA is not simply attaching a token to an asset. It can improve origination, registration, financing, trading, securitization and settlement. Figure combines loan supply, a partner network, capital-markets distribution and onchain infrastructure. If Kiavi and the AI agent replicate, the company may capture platform economics beyond individual loan spreads.
04 · INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS
Industry and asset implications
Figure platform
Volume and profit show a scalable base; the next test is whether Kiavi and agents create repeatable platform revenue.
RWA industry
Growth in real loan assets, institutional partners and securitization channels is stronger commercial evidence than tokenization narratives alone.
Enterprise AI
Agents are beginning to affect funded-loan conversion directly, supporting the move toward outcome-linked AI value.
Housing credit
As the platform grows, delinquencies, defaults, repurchases, fraud and securitization spreads become more important disclosures.
This memo evaluates the business model and its validation conditions. It is not a recommendation to trade Figure or any related security or token.
05 · VALIDATION & RISKS
What to verify next
Acquisition synergy
Kiavi assets cross-sell through Figure Connect while partner retention and platform revenue improve.
Failure signal: Scale rises but integration cost, attrition or credit quality worsens
AI replication
Agents sustain higher funded-loan conversion across more partners and asset types.
Failure signal: The gain remains confined to one pilot or depends on looser underwriting
Credit quality
Delinquencies, defaults, repurchases and fraud losses remain controlled.
Failure signal: Higher conversion arrives with materially higher losses
Platform revenue
Third-party mix, non-interest revenue and partner retention keep improving.
Failure signal: Figure Connect share declines or volume materially trails partner growth
What would change our view?
The platform thesis weakens if Kiavi raises costs or damages asset quality, AI conversion comes with higher defaults or fraud, housing-credit spreads widen materially, or Figure Connect growth fails to produce durable platform revenue.
06 · FAQ
Key questions
Is Figure already a mature capital-markets platform?
Not yet. Platform evidence is rising, but Kiavi synergy, AI replication and credit quality need subsequent-quarter proof.
Does a 143% lift mean revenue will rise 143%?
No. It is a relative lift in funded-loan conversion in an early pilot, not a forecast for companywide revenue or profit.
Why classify Figure as RWA?
It brings origination, registration, funding, trading and securitization of real loan assets onto digital and onchain infrastructure, rather than merely issuing a token.
What is the biggest risk?
Platform growth can magnify housing-cycle and credit losses. More applications and assets do not guarantee better unit economics or credit quality.
What data matter next?
Q3 Kiavi integration, agent rollout, Figure Connect mix, and delinquency, repurchase and credit-loss disclosures.
07 · TERMS & SOURCES
Terms, sources and related research
Key terms
- RWA
- Real-world assets: loans, bonds and other offchain claims whose rights, records or workflows use digital and onchain infrastructure.
- Figure Connect
- Figure’s loan capital marketplace linking originators with purchasing, funding and trading channels.
- HELOC
- A revolving home-equity line of credit secured by the borrower’s housing equity.
- DSCR loan
- A loan primarily underwritten against an investment property’s cash flow relative to debt service.
- Adjusted EBITDA
- A non-GAAP operating measure excluding selected non-cash or non-core items; it does not replace net income or cash flow.
Evidence boundary: Figure reported the quarterly and pilot figures; adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure. The 143% figure is a relative conversion lift from a company analysis conducted in July 2026, without full sample, long-term credit performance or independent validation.